The global economy bike race – NZ battling to hold place in 2nd bunch
Lengthy periods on a push bike get you thinking.
BigCake completed the Christchurch – Akaroa race on Saturday thinking mainly about when would the pain (and the hills) stop.
But during more pleasant training rides, alone with his thoughts, he often comes up with great plans (this blog being one) and theories.
Anyway, one BigCake theory is that the world economies travel in bunches like a bike race.
If you look at the world’s economies there are clear groupings of countries and some are going faster than others.
Sometimes countries jump across to the next bunch up the road, for example Singapore and Hong Kong, and sometimes they drop off the back of a bunch because the pace is too hot (New Zealand).
The leading bunch consists of a three country teams and a couple of individuals:
o Team oil (Qatar, Brunei etc)
o Team Europe ‘Mini’ (Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway…)
o Team North America (the US and Canada)
o Australia is up in the leading bunch on its own, having dropped its other Oceania team member New Zealand on one of the early hills
o Two members of the Asian Tigers team – Singapore and Hong Kong – have jumped across to the leading bunch from the second bunch.
The second bunch, which is mostly losing ground to the lead bunch, includes:
o Team Europe ‘Grand’ (United Kingdom, Germany & France)
o Team Europe ‘Nice Beaches’ (Greece, Spain, Italy…)
o New Zealand is hanging around the rear of this bunch along with some up and comers from Team Europe ‘Once were Commies’ (The Czech Republic and Slovenia) and remaining members of Asian Tigers team (South Korea and Taiwan)
Other teams can be seen further back:
o Remaining members of Team Europe ‘once were commies’
o Team West Indies
o Leading riders from Team Africa ‘Elite’ (Equatorial Guinea and Gabon)
o Team South America
Falling right off the back is Team Africa ‘Basket Case’ including the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zimbabwe.
These positions (based on IMF 2009 GDP per capita rankings) chop and change depending on prevailing conditions.
New Zealand was right up front in the early half of last century, but fell off the pace as the winds of global trading shifted against it.
Now we are trying to hang onto the back of a bunch that includes the aggressive South Korea and Taiwan and the fast rising Team ‘Once were Commies’.
Scarily for New Zealand, we don’t have any natural allies (apart from Australia who are now well up the road) to help pull us along.
The powerful combos are powered by common interests in oil and geography (especially being in Europe).
If New Zealand was to belong to a team it would be Team Commodity which would include Australia, but then we have to go back to maybe Chile, the lead rider for Team South America.
Our best hope for support looks to be the Asian teams – Team Asian Tiger, Team China, Team India and Team Japan (once it recovers from a couple of crashes).
But we’ve got to get on their wheels (to draft) or we’re out the back again.
Then we’re fighting for survival in the third bunch…